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Monday, April 26, 2010

does anyone else recognize this song?

-click on pics for full size-






i find striking similarities between the positions that the executive branch of the u.s.government has placed 2 distinguished female public servant-bearucrats.

janet reno, president clinton's embattled attorney general, took responsibility for ordering the disastrous tragic firebombing of the branch davidian compound in waco, not that he will tell you. isnt it strange that such disastrous activity would entitle her to be renominated for another term after president clinton's second election? it would seem to me that ms. reno was offered a second attorney generalship to keep her quiet about the waco incident. clinton may well have been threatened about this matter.

isnt it strange that goldman sachs which financially supported the campaigns mainly of sympathetic democratics is now supported mainly by republicans? the sec case against goldman has become too politicized too quickly.

the securities and exchange commission has no history of politicizing their prosecutions and announcements. this is unheard of. the timing is very suspect given the president's announcement of the financial regulation legislation that he's looking at, and the next thing you know, this action is taken against goldman sachs.

to me, this announcement was brought out far too early(these cases rarely become public until the announcement of their settlement).
there was an article a few days ago about what evidence the commission had to bring this case in the first place. it was a split decision by the commissioners on an enforcement action, which essentially never happens. this seems like it was done in kind of a rush, with commissioner shapiro casting the deciding vote.

shockingly, the new trial venue will be congress with goldman head, blankfein, and their employee, fabrice tourre(the fabulous fab) charged
with misrepresenting these synthetic mortgages invited to testify before congress early this week(strangely, this was scheduled long before the sec charges). this is VERY unusual. there are all kinds of implications for the sec case with these 2 gentlemen as they testify before congress.

we dont know if the justice department is looking at this from a criminal prosecution standpoint. they are going forward on too many fronts, too many stages at this point. i've never seen this before in my adult life.

goldman is distancing themselves from employee tourre. they took away his licenses and put him on leave, trying to make it a 1 man deal.

this thing was politicized from the very start. there is no reason that goldman shouldnt be investigated(they should be), but the timing of this stinks to high heaven. there are certainly lots of dead animals in goldman's house.

strangely,commissioner shapiro doesnt want any kind of discovery on these findings. they are likely going to find that these matters were NOT settled for political reasons(sec has really rolled the dice). documents which have come out between aca(the purchaser of this junk) would seem to contradict the government case, which, in most cases, if not always, results in settling with a great big check, and a nofault finding. this would seem to me to lead to a very weak court case and the government being embarrassed, in this case.

they have been investigating this deal for 2 years and have come out with a clunker of a case. there are no mortgages in this deal. this is just a binary bet on how much it will pay out.

i remember an indian(india) say that there was $35 of leverage on every dollar mortgaged. these things became such a frenzy because you could mark them wherever you wanted, take the profit, get your bonus and go, that there werent enough mortgages to go around.

synthetic portfolios were constructed. they ran out of stuff to sell. as bad as the mortgage business was, they had securitized health club memberships, knowing how many would fail on those things, and finding somebody wanting to bet the other side. credit card receivables, walmart receivables, it's just crazy that, on top of that, they lever up the bet in a synthetic manner.
on fabrice tourre, goldman will give him up if they have to, but they are on 'dying ground.' gold
man is going to fight so hard right now and the government could get a huge black eye. this case was used for political purposes to get a very very weak financial reform bill passed.

a good thing about the bill is that it is attemting to get some of this stuff collateralized(almost never now, maybe 1/200 is now).
people buy this junk because the name goldman gives it a great air of respectability and authenticity. if a mortgage vehicle pays 2% more than the government, there will be big buyers.

of these credit default swaps being sold now, many, if not most, have no chance of ever being honored, and are being traded as if they could. what broker could possibly make good on a basket of bonds from the state of california? nobody could.
it is possible that 15 states could go bellyup at the same time(who could write that check?)

this is bizarro world, if you think about it.

if the government cant get this thing closed, (it wouldnt settle this case) commissioner shapiro gets tosssed. i am thinking they will settle after the bill is passed. she is in a VERY vulnerable position right now. it will be very interesting when she goes before congress again to see what side of her mouth she is talking on. she is in a very precarious position. i dont see any political gain for her. pushing this forward is clearly premature.

how are you going to have the hearing after the congressional circus this week? having congress get in at this stage(again, tourre was invited to testify before this civil fraud case was filed) is shocking.
the thing already leaked. isnt that bizarre? tourre and blankfein show up the same day, which will be a circus like never before.
they, at this time, have been invited, not subpoenaed. the, since charges have been filed, can respectfully decline the invitation, at which point, they would need to be subpoenaed. if they are, their lawyers would likely insist that their testimony be immunized, and what does this do to the sec case?

seeing this on parallel tracks seems unusual, some would say idiotic. why was congress looking at these same guys at the same time?

now the 27th of this week will be a minifinancial superbowl. clearly, questions will be raised about why goldman and the sec didnt settle this like most similar cases falls squarely in the lap of commissioner shapiro.

waco and goldman and 2 ladies to take the bullets for presidents like police dogs. stay tuned.

i think i recognize this song. does anyone else?

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